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SWOT Analysis: 2025 Outlook
Strength
In the metal space, we are constructive on gold due to robust central bank purchases, with Poland leading with c.1,961 koz in FY24; this, coupled with gold’s safe-haven status, we project gold prices to average USD 2,550/oz in 2025 (+6.3% YoY)
Weakness
Nickel market faces persistent oversupply challenges (+5% above demand), with prices expected to drop to USD 15,500/ton in 2025 (FY24 avg. USD 16,844/ton), as China’s economic slowdown and inadequate stimulus create negative sentiment
Opportunity
Economic instability boosts gold's safe-haven appeal, benefitting gold stocks as investors seek stability; Indonesia's 4Q24 delayed mining approvals may support nickel prices, offering short-term relief amid uncertainties resulting in market outperformance
Threat
US-China trade war, lower-than-expected global economic stimulus, and slower EV transition to weigh on nickel demand amid oversupply issues, exerting further price pressures, dragging down earnings and causing market underperformance
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