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27 December 2024

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Palm Oil Weekly (20 – 26 December 2024): Avg. CPO MYR 4,842 (-1.1% WoW)

  • In the last five trading days, CPO prices fell -1.1% WoW, averaging MYR 4,842/MT. The decline was driven by a combination of stronger USD and seasonal factors.
  • Malaysia’s overseas shipments fell 8.3% MoM during the first 20 days of December, according to Intertek Testing Services. Exports to India, the largest buyer, dropped nearly 22% MoM. Demand typically weakens in winter as palm oil solidifies at colder temperatures (Malaysia’s CPO exports decreased -3.2% MoM/-7.6% YoY in Dec-23 and -2.6% MoM/+3.5% YoY in Dec-22). Additionally, scattered showers predicted in Indonesia and Malaysia, favorable for CPO production, added pressure to prices.
  • However, strong demand from China ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in late January, along with Lebaran festivities in Indonesia and Malaysia, is likely to help offset further price declines.
  • At this stage, we retain our FY24 average at MYR 4,190/MT (YTD: MYR 4,190/MT) and MYR 4,500/MT in 2025F on the back of B40 program and public preference towards CPO as cooking oil. On stocks, NSSS (TP IDR 350/sh) and TAPG (TP IDR 1,050/sh) are our top picks, due to young plantation profiles (<10 years old), reflecting higher crop and extraction yields.

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CPO - 20 - 26 December 2024

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CPO - 20 - 26 December 2024

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