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Company Reports

03 January 2025

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SSI Surveillance: Raw Materials (25 – 31 December 2024)

Soybean CBT rose 2.5% over the past week, driven by increased demand from China (the world’s largest soybean consumer) as it enters the winter season. Vegetable oils with lower melting points, such as soybean oil, are preferred during this period. Moreover, soybean oil’s current price advantage over CPO, with USD 139/ton discount compared to historical average USD 73/ton premium, is expected to further bolster demand. We anticipate the rise in soybean oil prices will support CPO prices at relatively high levels.

CPO prices jumped 4.1% in the last 5D, largely due to tight supply in Indonesia and Malaysia (80% of global CPO production) due to heavy rainfall that disrupted FFB harvesting and transportation. Also, the Indonesian government’s plan to implement B40 starting January 2025 is projected to significantly increase domestic CPO consumption. Heightened CPO prices should impact UNVR>ICBP>CMRY.

Cocoa prices declined -5.7% in the past 5D, as liquidity dropped to its lowest level in over a decade due to margin calls, making holding investment positions more costly. However, challenging weather conditions in West Africa’s cocoa-producing regions are expected to provide mid-term price support. The drop in cocoa prices should benefit MYOR.

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