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23 December 2024

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Nickel Weekly (16-20 December 2024): Avg. USD 15,244/ton (-3.1% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In the last five trading days, average nickel prices fell to USD 15,244/ton (-3.1% WoW), pressured by stronger US dollar and lackluster economic outlook from the Federal Reserve for next year, which outweighed the potential impact of sharp mining cuts in Indonesia.
  • In October, Indonesia's steel exports to China declined to 1,224 mt (-11.2% MoM; -51.6% YoY), reflecting weakened demand and underperformance in the "September-October peak season“. Key destinations saw drops, including Italy (-69.6% MoM), India (-21.8% MoM), and Taiwan (-14.2% MoM), driven by high inventory levels and global uncertainties. Stainless steel scrap exports also fell -18.33% MoM to 4,100 mt, reflecting weak nickel demand through year-end.
  • We lower our FY24 nickel price forecast to USD 16,850/ton from USD 16,900/ton (YTD: USD 16,844/ton) while maintaining FY25’s at USD 15,500/ton, reflecting global uncertainties and fluctuating supply-demand dynamics. Stock-wise, we retain NCKL as our top pick, supported by anticipated earnings growth from capacity expansion and industry-low cash costs, with TP of IDR 1,200 (FY25 P/E: 10.3x).

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Harga Nikel Stabil di Tengah Tekanan Global

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