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13 January 2025

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Copper Weekly (06 – 10 January 2025): Avg. USD 8,917/ton (+2.1% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In the last five trading days, copper prices increased +2.1% WoW to USD 8,917/ton, driven mainly by 10,100 mt drop in China’s inventories to 105,700 mt, reversing a 2-week drop and signalling recovery in demand amid tighter supply.
  • The upcoming Chinese New Year offers additional support for copper demand, as it traditionally drives manufacturing activities and consumer spending, boosting the need for copper-intensive products such as electronics, appliances, and decorative items. This, coupled with China’s target for net-zero emissions by 2060 and planned 1,200 GW solar capacity by 2030—requiring significant wire consumption—may provide further support for copper prices.
  • In FY24, avg. copper price reached USD 9,143/ton (SSI: USD 9,150/ton). However, in the short-term and for FY25, we are concerned over China-US trade war and global economic uncertainties, and thus, we set our 12M avg. copper price forecast at USD 8,500/ton (YTD: USD 8,853/ton), down 7.0% YoY. Stockwise, MDKA is our top pick with TP of IDR 2,000 (EV/EBITDA FY25: 10.5x), supported by its path to profitability and completion of the Weda Bay smelter in 4Q24.

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