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Company Reports

03 January 2025

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Oil Weekly (27 December 2024 – 2 January 2025): Avg. USD 74.8/bbl (+2.3% WoW)

In the last 5 trading days, Brent prices rose +2.3% WoW (from USD 73.1/bbl), while WTI increased +2.9% WoW (from USD 71.6/bbl), driven by heightened investor confidence as the market entered the new year.

Investors started the first trading day of 2025 with optimism around China’s economy and fuel demand following President Xi Jinping’s New Year address, which hinted at proactive policies to promote growth in 2025. This, coupled with bets on colder temperatures across US and Europe, provided support for oil prices.

In FY24, average oil price reached USD 79.8/bbl (SSI: USD 80/bbl). For FY25, we set our forecast at USD 72/bbl (YTD: USD 73.1/bbl), down 10% YoY, as we anticipate sustained price pressure and potential supply increases from certain OPEC+ members. However, extended production cuts into 4Q24 and 2025 may provide some upside. MEDC remains our top pick with target price of IDR 2,200, reflecting FY25F valuation of 5.1x EV/EBITDA.

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