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Company Reports

13 January 2025

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Nickel Weekly (06 – 10 January 2025): Avg. USD 15,191/ton (+0.9% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In the last five trading days, average nickel prices slightly increased to USD 15,191/ton (+0.9% WoW) on China's Nov-24 imports of hydrometallurgy intermediate products rise of +10% YoY. This was driven by higher shipments from Indonesia, Australia, and Finland, while refined nickel inventories fell -2.4% WoW to 40,219 mt, signalling tighter supply.
  • On the flip side, China's nickel ore imports plunged -23.2% MoM and -16.1% YoY in Nov-2024 (11M24: -14.9% YoY) due to reduced shipments from the Philippines amid rainy season, leading to declining port inventories, which fell 340,000 wmt to 8,596 million wmt. Meanwhile, sluggish transactions in the refined nickel market and declining premiums and discounts reflect weakened demand and ample domestic supply, adding downward pressure on prices.
  • In FY24, avg. nickel price reached USD 16,818/ton (SSI: USD 16,850). For FY25, we cut our forecast from USD 15,500/ton to USD 15,000 (YTD: USD 15,105/ton), down 12.1% from 2024’s level, amid global uncertainties and volatile supply-demand dynamics. In terms of stocks, we retain NCKL as our top pick, on anticipated earnings growth from capacity expansions and industry-low cash costs, with TP of IDR 850 (FY25 P/E: 7.3x).

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