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07 January 2025

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Nickel Weekly (30 Dec 2024 – 03 Jan 2025): Avg. USD 15,053/ton (-0.9% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In the last five trading days, average nickel prices fell to USD 15,053/ton (-0.9% WoW), mainly due to lower trading activities between Christmas and New Year, coupled with USD appreciation (+0.9% WoW).
  • In Dec, Indonesia's NPI production rose +7.3% MoM, with further growth of +0.8% MoM/+17.8% YoY projected for Jan-2025, exacerbating oversupply and market pressure concerns. Meanwhile, China's refined nickel production surged +27.6% YoY, but narrowing export profitability hindered production expansions and dampened industry sentiment. Additionally, stainless steel production in January is expected to decline -8.53% MoM, adding to market challenges.
  • In FY24, avg. nickel price reached USD 16,818/ton (SSI: USD 16,850). For FY25, we set our forecast at USD 15,500/ton (YTD: USD 14,890/ton), down 7.8% YoY, amid global uncertainties and volatile supply-demand dynamics. Stock-wise, we retain NCKL as our top pick, supported by anticipated earnings growth from capacity expansion and industry-low cash costs, with TP of IDR 1,200 (FY25 P/E: 10.3x).

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