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23 December 2024

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Gold Weekly (16-20 December 2024): Avg. USD 2,620/oz (-2.2% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In the last five trading days, average gold prices fell -2.2% WoW to USD 2,620/oz (from USD 2,680/oz), while the DXY Index strengthened to 107.6 (+0.9% WoW), increasing pressure on gold to sustain high levels.
  • Gold slipped over 2%, hitting a one-month low on Wednesday, following the U.S. Federal Reserve's expected rate cut (25-50 bps for FY25). However, the Fed signaled a slower pace of further borrowing cost reductions, boosting the dollar and bond yields. Additionally, weaker Indian demand persists as families opt for lightweight and lower-carat jewelry, reducing overall consumption. Dealer discounts narrowed to $8/oz from $9, reflecting limited demand recovery.
  • We revise our FY24 gold price estimate to USD 2,380/oz from USD 2,400/oz (YTD: USD 2,384/oz) while maintaining FY25’s at USD 2,600/oz, reflecting slower potential Fed rate cuts to support economic growth and reserve-driven gold purchases. Stock-wise, we retain BRMS as our top pick (TP IDR 500; USD 26.4/ton EV/Reserve FY25F), supported by robust dore bullion production, strong earnings outlook, and significant untapped assets’ potential.

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Harga Emas Turun

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