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10 January 2025

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Coal Weekly (3 – 9 January 2025): Avg. USD 120/ton (-4.6% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Over the past 5 trading days, avg. coal prices plummeted to USD 120.4/ton (-4.6% WoW), mainly due to lower projection for China’s 2025 imports of 525Mt (-1.9% YoY) coupled with higher domestic output forecast to 4.8 Bt (+1.5% YoY).
  • In 2024, Mongolia's coal exports hit a record 83.7 Mt, exceeding the annual target of 78 Mt, though the average selling price fell short, averaging USD 103/t (target: USD 115/t). Additionally, prices were weighed down by Australia's December coal exports of 34.8 Mt (+8.4% MoM, +3.9% YoY), and South Africa's November exports to 6.8 Mt (+5.0% MoM, +15.4% YoY).
  • In FY24, average coal price reached USD 136.4/t (SSI: USD 136). For FY25, we cut our forecast to USD 120/t (YTD: USD 120.7) from USD 125, down -12.0% YoY, due to economic uncertainties and oversupply pressures. On the stock front, ADRO (TP IDR 3,400; FY25 P/E of 12.8x) is our top pick, primarily due to its green business initiatives as well as ADMR and SIS’ contributions to earnings.

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