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10 January 2025

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Oil Weekly (3 – 9 January 2025): Avg. USD 76.6/bbl (+2.4% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In the last 5 trading days, Brent prices rose +2.4% WoW (from USD 74.8/bbl), while WTI jumped +3.1% WoW (from USD 71.6/bbl). Prices peaked midweek, marking the first highs of 2025, before pulling back slightly.
  • In Dec 2024, OPEC crude production fell -120 mbpd to 27.1 mmbpd, and the UAE delayed its planned 300 mbpd production increase to April (from Jan), pushing OPEC+'s full restoration of 2.2 mmbpd to September 2026. Concurrently, Russian crude exports declined -190mbpd to 2.9 mmbpd as of January 5, while US crude imports from Canada reached record high of 689 mbpd, coinciding with concerns over the 25% tariff proposed by President-elect Donald Trump.
  • In FY24, average oil price reached USD 79.8/bbl (SSI: USD 80/bbl). For FY25, we set our forecast at USD 72/bbl (YTD: USD 76.9/bbl), down -10% YoY, as we anticipate sustained price pressure and potential supply increases from certain OPEC+ members. However, extended production cuts into 4Q24 and 2025 may provide some upside. MEDC remains our top pick with target price of IDR 2,200, reflecting FY25F valuation of 5.1x EV/EBITDA.

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