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Company Reports

03 January 2025

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Coal Weekly (27 December 2024 – 2 January 2025): Avg. USD 125.3/ton (-0.3% WoW)

In the last 5 trading days, avg. coal prices slipped to USD 125.3/ton (-0.3% WoW), with Newcastle coal futures nearing USD 125/ton in Jan (lowest in 10 months), as abundant supply offset demand. China's coal inventories surged +12% in 2 months (Sept – Oct), adding pressure on prices.

China’s coal output hit record 14.3 million tons/day in Nov, up sharply from 12.28 million tons/day in Oct. However, the country’s demand softened due to Beijing’s ineffective economic stimulus, while heavy rainfall in manufacturing hubs increased reliance on hydroelectric power over coal.

In FY24, average coal price reached USD 136.4/t (SSI: USD 136/t). For FY25, we set our forecast at USD 125/t (YTD: USD 126.6/t), down 8.3% YoY, due to economic uncertainties and oversupply pressures. On the stock front, ADRO (TP IDR 3,400; FY25 P/E of 12.8x) is our top pick, primarily due to its initiative to venture towards green business as well as ADMR and SIS’ contributions to earnings.

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