Research & Stock Picks

Company Reports

09 January 2025

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Property: Neutral with CTRA as Top Pick

Strength

Accelerating 2025F marketing sales growth of 8.4% YoY (2024F: 6.1%), driven by new project launches and acquisitions of new land banks by the likes of BSDE of c. 800-900 ha from SMDM and CTRA amounting to 165ha from EMDE

 

Opportunity

The government has extended VAT incentives for housing with 100% VAT exemption available until Jun-25 and 50% exemption until Dec-25, boosting pre-sales growth in 2025 and improving relative share price performances

 

Weakness

Margins may decline slightly in 2025F as weaker-than-expected purchasing power increases the mix of cheaper housing; Additionally, the 3mn housing program may compete with lower-end projects, such as CTRA’s Maja and Jonggol

 

Threat

Softer purchasing power and higher property prices could arise on IDR weakness and local interest rate staying high for longer driven by prolonged USD strength; negative property-related sentiments may cause underperformances for most of the counters

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2025 Property Outlook

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2025 Property Outlook

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