Research & Stock Picks

Company Reports

23 December 2024

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Copper Weekly (16-20 December 2024): Avg. USD 8,856/ton (-2.2% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In the last five trading days, copper prices dropped -2.2% WoW to USD 8,856/ton, pressured by strong USD, weaker demand due to the Fed's slower 2025 rate cut outlook, subdued year-end trading activity, and mounting destocking pressures amid limited arrivals and lackluster market performance.
  • In Nov, China’s cathode imports were weak at 359,900 mt (+0.1% MoM, -5.0% YoY). For 2025, total copper cathode imports are expected to decline YoY, with the growth in non-registered supplies likely offset by African producers adding more cathodes to the LME, reducing the influence of unregistered suppliers and minimizing uncertainty, which may temper further price declines.
  • We maintain our average FY24 copper price forecast at USD 9,150/ton (YTD: USD 9,153/ton) and FY25 at USD 9,100/ton, amid global economic uncertainties. We retain MDKA as our top pick with TP of IDR 3,000 (EV/EBITDA FY25: 10.2x), supported by its path to profitability in 2024 and the expected completion of the Weda Bay smelter in 4Q24.

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