Research & Stock Picks

Economic Reports

07 January 2025

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Samuel Daily Economic Insights 7 January 2025

Ikhtisar

Perekonomian Indonesia memberikan sinyal yang cukup beragam di 2024. Defisit APBN tercatat sebesar 2.3% dari PDB, di bawah ekspektasi tetapi lebih tinggi dari tahun sebelumnya, yang mencerminkan pengendalian fiskal yang baik di tengah lambatnya pertumbuhan pendapatan. Inflasi turun ke titik terendah dalam sejarah di 1.57%, didorong oleh lemahnya permintaan, sementara sektor manufaktur bangkit pada bulan Desember, menandakan adanya potensi pemulihan pada tahun 2025. Perubahan mendadak terkait rencana kenaikan PPN dan paket stimulus sebesar IDR 265 triliun (USD 16.3 miliar) menunjukkan masih belum stabilnya kebijakan, meskipun perubahan tersebut mengurangi tekanan pada kelompok berpenghasilan rendah dan UKM. Tekanan utama meliputi menyusutnya kelas menengah, ketidakseimbangan perdagangan yang menekan rupiah, dan hambatan dalam transisi energi meskipun ada kemajuan dalam produksi minyak dan tujuan energi terbarukan. Di sisi investasi, target yang ambisius dan komitmen investasi asing, termasuk komitmen China sebesar USD 7.46 miliar, memberikan sedikit optimisme, meskipun masih belum selesainya negosiasi dengan Apple menunjukkan tantangan yang dihadapi. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan menutup tahun 2024 dengan positif, tetapi risiko dari ketidakpastian global dan faktordomestik tetap ada. Ke depannya, prospek ekonomi Indonesia akan bergantung pada keseimbangan antara efektivitas kebijakan domestik dengan tantangan geopolitik eksternal.

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