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Company Reports

20 December 2024

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Palm Oil Weekly (13 – 19 December 2024): Avg. CPO MYR 4,847 (-4.9% WoW)

  • In the last five trading days, CPO prices plummeted -4.9% WoW, averaging MYR 4,847/MT. The decline was driven by a combination of stronger USD and seasonal factors as well as the availability of cheaper substitutes, which shifted consumer demand in China and India, two of the world's largest CPO consumers.
  • Palm oil exports from Malaysia slipped nearly -10% MoM in the first half of December, a trend typically observed during winter (CPO tends to solidify at colder temperatures, complicating storage). Additionally, the drop in soybean oil prices (YTD: -20%, CPO +30%) has led some buyers to opt for the cheaper options, as reflected in the increase in November SBO reserves in China (+14% YTD to 941,500 MT) and India (+2% to 171,000 MT), and the considerable decline in CPO inventories in both countries (China: -36% YTD to 440,800 MT,  India: -30% YTD to 365,000 MT).
  • We fine-tune our FY24 average CPO forecasts from MYR 4,100/MT to 4,190 (YTD: MYR 4,177/MT) and MYR 4,500/MT in 2025F (prev: MYR 4,200/MT) on the back of B40 program and public preference towards CPO as cooking oil. On stocks, NSSS (TP IDR 350/sh) and TAPG (TP IDR 1,050/sh) are our top picks, due to young plantation profiles (<10 years old), reflecting higher crop and extraction yields.

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CPO - 13 - 19 December 2024

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CPO - 13 - 19 December 2024

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