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Daily Report

28 August 2023

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Waspadai turbulensi global akibat nada hawkish Fed

IHSG dan pasar obligasi domestik kemungkinan kembali menghadapi tekanan jual yang kuat dari investor asing karena pernyataan Ketua Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat Jerome Powell yang tergolong hawkish pada Jumat lalu (25/8) di simposium Jackson Hole (lihat global economic news). Tekanan jual akan berlangsung hingga hari Jumat mendatang (1/9) bertepatan dengan rilis data non-farm payrolls untuk bulan Agustus serta inflasi PCE AS untuk bulan Juli sehari sebelumya (31/8). Apabila inflasi headline dan inti PCE hanya naik 0.2% mom, dan non-farm payrolls kembali turun di bulan Agustus, maka turbulensi pasar global akan berkurang pada minggu selanjutnya. Menghadapi situasi ini, kami merekomendasikan investor untuk tetap menjaga posisi defensif dengan switching ke INDON dan INDOGB 2Y. Intervensi BI di pasar valas melalui operation twist pada pekan lalu yang mendorong naik yield INDOGB 2Y sebesar 18 bps menjadi 6.37% serta mempersempit yield spread antara INDOGB 10Y Vs. 2Y menjadi 16 bps (22/8: 48 bps) membuat upside risk dari tenor ini semakin terbatas, terutama bila mempertimbangkan penurunan tajam yield 2Y INDON hingga -26 bps. Kami memperkirakan yield 10Y INDOGB dan Rupiah akan tertekan menuju rentang masing-masing 6.6-6.7% dan IDR 15,300-15,400 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Bussan Auto Finance berencana terbitkan Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Tahap IV Tahun 2023. Nilai penerbitan obligasi tersebut direncanakan sebesar IDR 458bn. Obligasi ini hanyak akan diterbitkan dalam satu seri dengan kupon bunga 6.5% per tahun dan tenor 3 tahun dengan masa jatuh tempo 8 September 2026. Masa penawaran umum akan berlangsung selama tanggal 4-5 September. Secara keseluruhan, target penggalangan dana Obligasi Berkelanjutan II adalah sebesar IDR 3tn. (Emitennews)

Global Economic News: Powell indikasikan akan menahan kenaikan suku bunga di bulan Septmber, tetapi siap menaikkan suku bunga lagi bila inflasi menunjukkan tanda-tanda rebound di 4Q23. Hal ini disebabkan oleh masih kuatnya ekspansi ekonomi Amerika Serikat yang berdampak pada bertahannya tingkat pengangguran di kisaran 3.5%. Pasar merespon pernyataan ini dengan perkiraan kenaikan bunga 50-50 di bulan November atau Desember. Menurut kami, hal ini dapat memicu kembali arus keluar modal asing di IHSG maupun pasar obligasi domestik hingga 2 minggu ke depan. (Wall Street Journal)

Domestic Economic News: Kementerian ESDM pertimbangkan pengalihan subsidi BBM ke Pertamax RON 92. Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral berargumen bahwa subsidi ini diperlukan untuk mengurangi polusi udara. Pengalihan subsidi BBM ini juga akan diikuti dengan pembatasan penjualan Pertalite. Menurut kami, kebijakan ini dapat memicu kenaikan inflasi, dengan estimasi tergantung pada skema yang nanti diajukan. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0056, FR0081, FR0084, FR0086, FR0096, FR0097, FR0098.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 28 Agustus 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 28 Agustus 2023 (Ind)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 28 Agustus 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 28 Agustus 2023 (Ind)

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