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Recent Catalysts Driving the Price
qIn 23 – 27 September 2024, nickel prices surged +2.8% WoW, averaging USD 16,488/ ton. Nickel futures rose to one-month high as China's aggressive stimulus measures boosted demand outlook for base metals.
qIn addition, China’s refined nickel inventory rose 1,921 mt WoW to 31,816 mt due to aggressive purchases in response to growing steel demand from the country, reflecting positive momentum as prices trended upward. Continuous monetary policy efforts have bolstered market confidence, driving gains in the non-ferrous metals market.
qWe retain our FY24 nickel price forecast of USD 17,220/ton (YTD: USD 17,072/ton). In terms of stocks, we maintain NCKL as our top pick with TP of IDR 1,200 (FY24 P/E: 8.4x) due to anticipated earnings growth from capacity expansion and industry-lowest cash cost.
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