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18 October 2024

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Oil Weekly (18 October 2024): USD 75.9/bbl (-3.2% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In 11 – 17 October 2024, Brent prices fell -3.2% WoW (from USD 78.4/bbl), while WTI prices declined -3.5% WoW (from USD 74.8/bbl), mainly due to easing concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East after Israel clarified its focus on targeting military sites and refrained from attacking Iran's oil facilities.
  • OPEC revised 2024-2025 oil demand growth forecast downward to 1.93 Mbpd (from 2.03 Mbpd) and China’s 2024 consumption growth projection to 580,000 bpd (from 650,000 bpd). Meanwhile, IEA predicts lower demand growth in 2024 (0.9 Mbpd) and 2025 (1 Mbpd), down from post-COVID era average (2 Mbpd).
  • We maintain our average oil forecast at USD 80/bbl (avg YTD: USD 81.1/bbl) due to sustained price pressure and possible oil supply boost from Libya, though some upside persists from potential production cuts in 4Q24 and 2025. At this stage, we retain MEDC as our top pick, with target price of IDR 2,200, reflecting FY24F valuation of 4.9x EV/EBITDA.

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