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Company Reports

27 September 2024

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Oil Weekly (27 September 2024): USD 73.7/bbl (+0.6% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In 20 – 26 September 2024, Brent prices rose +0.6% WoW (from USD 73.3/bbl), while WTI prices slightly declined -0.4% WoW (from USD 70.6/bbl). Market sentiment turned negative following reports of Saudi Arabia's commitment to increase oil production in December.
  • Oil demand from China, the world’s largest importer, continues to weaken. Despite China's recent economic stimulus measures, consumption from the country remains relatively sluggish, adding further pressure to global oil prices. However, markets are anticipating OPEC+ announcement for November 2.2 mmbopd production reductions.
  • We lower our average oil forecast to USD 79/bbl (avg YTD: USD 77.7/bbl) due to sustained price pressure, though some upside persists from potential production cuts in 4Q24. At this stage, we retain MEDC as our top pick, with target price of IDR 2,200, reflecting FY24F valuation of 4.9x EV/EBITDA.

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