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Company Reports

15 October 2024

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ASII: 9M24 Auto Sales

Strength

ASII’s market dominance (57% YTD market share; 9M23: 55%) has helped cushioned the 4W sales volume drop in 9M24 (ASII: -15.1% YoY; Industry: -16.2% YoY)

 

Weakness

In Sep-24, ASII saw -4.5% MoM decline in 4W sales volumes (industry: -4.8% MoM), as some consumers shifted to other models or brands, particularly Honda and Wuling; ASII’s LCGC market share fell to 70% in Sep-24 (Aug-24: 75%; Sep-23: 71%)

 

Opportunity

Potential interest rate cuts and slight improvement in economic growth from 4.9% in 2024 to 5% in 2025 may help support 4W demand; YTD market underperformance provides trading opportunities particularly since the current share price translates to 10.6% potential upside to our TP; hence, we raise our rating to Buy from Hold

 

Threat

Mandatory TPL insurance regulation in 2025F and higher VAT for hybrid cars may dampen overall 4W demand; stock under-performance may persist on potential downward revisions in total 4W sales, partly due to middle class’ weaker purchasing power

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ASII 9M24 auto sales

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