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21 October 2024

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Copper Weekly (21 October 2024): USD 9,452/ton (-1.7% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In 14 – 18 October 2024, copper prices dropped -1.7% WoW to USD 9,452/ton. The projected Influx of supply in late October prompted many suppliers to sell their inventories at lower prices, though market trading remained relatively weak.
  • Copper is now on track for its third consecutive weekly price decline amid concerns over the lack of aggressive stimulus measures to support China’s struggling property sector (major consumer of copper). This has led to expectations that China's electrolytic copper imports may decline slightly to 3.5 million tons in 2024, 10,000 tons lower than last year’s. On the supply side, Australia’s BHP Group reported +4% increase in copper production, indicating robust supply and applying further pressure on prices.
  • We maintain our average FY24 copper forecast at USD 9,200/ton (YTD: USD 9,164/ton) despite potential headwinds against China’s industrial growth amid global economic slowdown concerns. We retain MDKA as our top pick, with TP IDR 3,000 (EV/EBITDA FY24: 10.9x), thanks to its potential to reach profitability in 2024 and the anticipated completion of Weda Bay smelter in 4Q24.

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