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30 September 2024

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Copper Weekly (30 September 2024): USD 9,651/ton (+3.7% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 23 – 27 September 2024, copper prices climbed +3.7% WoW to USD 9,651/ton on the back of China's stimulus, including reserve requirement ratio cut and lower lending rates, which bolstered demand expectations.
  • This, coupled with stronger-than-expected US economic data, strengthened market confidence that copper prices may exceed USD 10,000/ton in 2025, driven by high demand and investment in energy transition projects. Mining stocks surged on this optimism, with Glencore shares up 5.8%, BHP gained 4.8%, and Freeport-McMoRan climbed 7.5%.
  • Nevertheless, we remain conservative on our average FY24 copper price forecast of USD 9,200/ton (YTD: USD 9,128/ton) as industrial growth may slow down due to potential global economic slowdown. We retain MDKA as our top pick in the sector, with TP IDR 3,000 (EV/EBITDA FY24: 10.9x), thanks to its potential to reach profitability in 2024 and the anticipated completion of Weda Bay smelter in 4Q24.

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