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Strength
Robust 9M24 SSSG of ~9.8% (9M23: 7.4%;) on the back of positive performance from Java (9M24: 9.7%, 9M23: 4.3%), while ex- Java’s 9M24 SSSG remained at low teens 12.3%)
Weakness
Ex-Java’s SSSG declined in Sep-24 to 10.9% (Aug-24: 14,9%; Sep-23: 16,3%), which we attribute to normalization from low base effect in Sep-22
Opportunity
We expect ex-Java markets to maintain their upbeat momentum; this, coupled with K-shaped economic recovery, should support sales going forward and potentially continued market outperformance; thus, we upgrade our TP to IDR1,200/share (implied P/S 2.2x 2025F) previous TP IDR: 950/share
Threat
Worse-than-expected consumer spending (due to weak purchasing power, economic slowdown, and shrinking middle class) as well as potential Import tax on Chinese products may dampen ACES’s profitability ahead; the most expensive P/S valuation in our sector coverage
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