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24 October 2024

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BBCA: BUY (Maintain) – TP at 12,500 – 3Q24 Results

Strength
Strong 3Q24 earnings growth of 16.2% YoY, driven by solid loan growth (14.5% YoY) and improved NIM (+10bps QoQ) as the bank’s CoF declined


Opportunity
Given that it has the highest CASA ratio (82%) among our banking coverage (Sector: 65%), BBCA would benefit most if BI were to cut its 7DRR further in 4Q24, as the bank would be able to adjust TD rate immediately

Weakness
3Q24 LDR rose to 77.9% (+760bps YoY), as BBCA’s deposit growth (+3.4% YoY) significantly lagged behind its loan growth (+3.2% QoQ, +14.5% YoY); CoC rose 40bps to 0.6%, exceeding BBCA’s FY24 CoC target of 30-40bps


Threat
The bank may need to raise CoC if asset quality deteriorates further due to USD/IDR depreciation; BBCA’s YTD outperformance against the JCI may result in some profit taking going forward

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