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14 October 2024

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Nickel Weekly (14 October 2024): USD 17,467/ton (-0.3% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 07 – 11 October 2024, nickel prices were quite flattish (-0.3% WoW), averaging USD 17,467/ ton, primarily due to oversupply of Class 2 nickel from Indonesia, weak demand from China's stainless steel industry, and high spot market inventories. Additionally, lack of further stimulus from the Chinese government has dampened market and economic responses.
  • However, China's one-week holiday provided some support for prices, as production activities in the country were temporarily halted. Looking ahead, we expect NPI prices to remain robust, supported by solid demand from global stainless steel industries.
  • We retain our FY24 nickel price forecast of USD 17,220/ton (YTD: USD 17,093/ton) with NCKL, supported by anticipated earnings growth from capacity expansion and industry-lowest cash cost, as our top pick with TP of IDR 1,200 (FY24 P/E: 8.4x).

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