Research & Stock Picks

Economic Reports

11 October 2024

By

Samuel Daily Economic Insights 11 October 2024

Ikhtisar

Dunia ritel Indonesia dilanda kekhawatiran di tengah melemahnya kepercayaan konsumen, yang terlihat dari turunnya Indeks Kepercayaan Konsumen ke 121.5 pada bulan September. Meskipun demikian, Bank Indonesia tetap optimis, memperkirakan kenaikan 1.9% dalam penjualan ritel di bulan Oktober, terutama didukung oleh permintaan makanan dan minuman. Inflasi diperkirakan akan melambat pada bulan November 2024, meskipun kehati-hatian tetap diperlukan mengingat potensi fluktuasi harga pangan dan energi. Sementara itu, pergerakan ekonomi global terus mendukung prospek ekonomi Indonesia, dengan permintaan komoditas yang kuat menjadi pendukung bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi. Presiden terpilih Prabowo Subianto telah menetapkan target ambisius untuk mencapai swasembada pangan dalam waktu empat tahun, disertai dengan program makan gratis berskala besar, sementara investasi berkelanjutan dalam infrastruktur dan sumber daya manusia dipandang penting untuk ketahanan ekonomi jangka panjang. Meskipun ada kekhawatiran terkait praktik ketenagakerjaan yang tidak wajar, melejitnya industri nikel menghadirkan peluang signifikan bagi industri EV. Impor baja dari Tiongkok mengancam industri dalam negeri, mendorong seruan untuk kebijakan perdagangan yang protektif, dan upaya untuk mengembangkan pelabuhan baru di luar Jawa bertujuan untuk meningkatkan konektivitas regional. Namun, kurangnya penyaluran energi terbarukan di Kawasan Industri Batang dapat membuat calon investor ragu, sehingga perlu ada solusi berkelanjutan.

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