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Economic Reports

08 October 2024

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Samuel Daily Economic Insights: 8 October 2024

In September 2024, Indonesia's economic landscape saw mixed developments, with foreign exchange reserves dipping to USD 149.9 billion, primarily due to external debt payments. Despite this, reserves remain robust, covering 6.6 months of imports and serving as a buffer against external shocks amid geopolitical pressures on the rupiah. President-elect Prabowo Subianto plans a gradual increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio to stimulate growth while boosting tax revenues. Bank Indonesia (BI) stands ready to intervene in currency markets to stabilize the rupiah. Meanwhile, five months of deflation have increased purchasing power but pose risks to industries like automotive and tourism, potentially leading to revised targets. Investment flows continue into the new capital Nusantara, attracting USD 3.7 billion, while coal producers diversify into other sectors. On the financial market front, bullish sentiments on equities and corporate bonds contrast with a slump in IPO activity and foreign outflows, shrinking market capitalization. The government’s cautious approach includes tax incentives and policy shifts by OJK to boost investment managers’ roles in pension funds. Political support consolidates behind Prabowo's incoming administration, which enjoys high public trust. Concurrently, digital economy advancements, including AI readiness and growing crypto transactions, indicate a dynamic, yet challenging environment, while sustainability remains an area of concern with criticisms over Indonesia's green finance taxonomy and climate risks threatening small islands. Regional elections and capital relocation efforts further shape the national outlook.

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