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30 September 2024

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Gold Weekly (30 September 2024): USD 2,655/Oz (+2.7% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In 23 – 27 September 2024, average gold prices rose +2.7% WoW to USD 2,655/oz from USD 2,584/oz, while DXY index remained flattish -0.1% WoW. Gold prices stayed near recent highs, with expectations of continued monetary easing and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East keeping gold relatively popular as a safe-haven asset, despite pressure from US dollar and risk-on sentiment.
  • Investors are closely watching upcoming US inflation data that could influence future rate cuts and provide fresh momentum for gold prices, currently on an upward trend for three-weeks.
  • However, if the Fed were to fail to deliver further rate cuts in 4Q24, there could be a slight cut in our FY24 gold price estimate of USD 2,500/oz (YTD: USD 2,297/oz), with the upcoming US jobs reports potentially sparking significant volatility in gold prices. Stockwise, MDKA (TP IDR 3,000; 10.9x EV/EBITDA FY24F) remains our top pick on high likelihood of profitability and the expected commissioning of its Weda Bay smelter.

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