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Daily Report

12 May 2023

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Sentimen bullish solid, tenor 15-tahun atraktif

Sentimen bullish menyelimuti pasar obligasi domestik kemarin maupun global tadi malam (11/5). Imbal hasil (yield) INDOGB turun serentak untuk tenor pendek (2-tahun), menengah (5-tahun) dan panjang (10-tahun) masing-masing sebesar 6, 7 dan 8 bps menjadi 6.02%, 6.12% dan 6.4%. Yield UST dan Bund 10-tahun juga turun sebesar 6 bps menjadi masing-masing 3.38% dan 2.23%. Akan tetapi, kami melihat potensi profit INDOGB 10-tahun terus menipis, tercermin dari selisih yield INDOGB vs. UST 10-tahun yang hanya sebesar 302 bps. Oleh karena itu, kami mengusulkan instrumen INDOGB 15-tahun sebagai sebuah alternatif. Dalam seminggu terakhir, yield INDOGB 15-tahun turun sebesar -18 bps menjadi 6.69% setelah mengalami stagnasi berbulan-bulan pada kisaran 6.87%. Stagnasi tersebut terjadi karena yield spread INDOGB 15- vs. 10-tahun sempat tertahan di zona negatif (1/1: -10 bps). Saat ini yield spread INDOGB 15- vs 10-tahun sudah kembali positif di level 29 bps, yang dekat dengan rata-rata historis satu dekade terakhir sebesar 34 bps. Kami memprediksi INDOGB 15-tahun akan mengalami bullish rally hingga akhir tahun. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10-tahun akan menguat ke rentang 6.3-6.4% hari ini. Sedangkan, Rupiah tetap terkonsolidasi di rentang IDR 14,700-14,800 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Pemerintah tawarkan SBSN ritel ST010T2 dan Green Sukuk ST010T4. Kupon yang ditawarkan masing-masing sebesar 6.25% dan 6.4% dan menggunakan skema mengambang dengan menggunakan BI 7DRRR sebagai acuan. ST010T2 memiliki tenor dua tahun dengan periode jatuh tempo 10 Juni 2025. Sementara itu, ST010T4 memiliki tenor 4 tahun dengan periode jatuh tempo 10 Juni 2027. Kedua instrumen tersebut bersifat tidak bisa diperdagangkan. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: BOE naikkan suku bunga sesuai ekspektasi pasar sebesar 25 bps menjadi 4.5%. Akan tetapi, Bank Sentral Inggris (BOE) menyatakan kenaikan ini tidak akan menjadi yang terakhir, berlawanan dengan proyeksi para pelaku pasar menurut survei BOE pada bulan Maret lalu. Menurut kami, pernyataan BOE merupakan hal yang wajar karena tingkat inflasi di Britania Raya yang masih bertahan di level dua digit sebesar 10.1% yoy di bulan Maret. Mempertimbangkan tingkat inflasi tersebut, kami memprediksi BOE masih akan menaikkan suku bunga sebesar 50 bps (2X25 bps) di bulan Juni dan Juli. (Reuters)

Domestic Economic News: Kementerian Keuangan kenakan PPN 1.1% terhadap agunan yang diambil alih. Ketentuan PPN tersebut ditetapkan dalam Peraturan Menteri Keuangan (PMK) No. 41/2023. Kebijakan ini merupakan kompromi antara pemerintah dengan pihak lembaga keuangan. Sebelumnya sejumlah lembaga keuangan keberatan dengan rencana pengenaan PPN 11% atas penjualan agunan karena dapat mengurangi recovery rate dari penjualan agunan. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0050, FR0075, FR0079, PBS007, PBS034, PBS035.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 12 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 12 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 12 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 12 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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