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Daily Report

22 September 2023

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Samuel Daily Economic & Fixed Income 22 September 2023

Koreksi pasar global berlanjut, terapkan buy and hold obligasi berbunga tinggi

Investor di pasar SBN kembali mengalihkan portofolio instrument INDOGB mereka dari tenor panjang 10Y (naik 4 bps menjadi 6.79%) dan menengah 5Y (naik 2 bps menjadi 6.41%) ke tenor pendek 2Y (turun -3 bps menjadi 6.33%) akibat kebijakan moneter The Fed yang semakin hawkish. Kami memperkirakan aksi ini akan terus berlanjut akibat koreksi di pasar global yang tercermin dari penurunan indeks S&P untuk developed market -0.3% dan EMBI untuk emerging market -0.8%, maupun kenaikan yield 10Y UST dan Bund masing-masing 9 dan 4 bps menjadi 4.49% dan 2.74%. Sayangnya, sebagian investor tidak memiliki fleksibilitas untuk beralih ke tenor pendek. Oleh sebab itu, kami juga merekomendasikan strategi buy and hold obligasi SBN dan korporasi berbunga tinggi (≥7%) hingga akhir 2024. Strategi ini didasarkan pada fakta bahwa The Fed masih akan menahan suku bunga di 5.5% hingga 3Q24 atau 4Q24, yang berpotensi mengekang kebijakan suku bunga BI dan pergerakan 10Y SUN yield 2024 di rentang 6.4-6.6%. Kami memprediksi yield 10Y INDOGB akan terus naik ke rentang 6.8-6.9% hari ini dengan potensi titik tertinggi di 7%. Tekanan depresiasi terhadap Rupiah masih akan berlanjut dengan target rentang IDR 15,350-15,450 per USD.

Fixed Income News: BI akan perluas pilihan tenor SRBI ke instrument 2 minggu, 1 bulan, dan 3 bulan. Keputusan ini diumumkan karena tingginya tingkat permintaan di lelang SRBI, yakni oversubscribed 4.25 kali target sebesar IDR 7tn di lelang SRBI perdana (15/9; Total: IDR 29.9tn) dan 3.12 kali target IDR 5tn di lelang SRBI kedua (20/9; Total: IDR 15.6tn). Kami memperkirakan SRBI akan segera menjadi pilihan utama investor di pasar government bills (SPN dan SPNS). (Bank Indonesia)

Global Economic News: BOE kejutkan pasar dengan menahan suku bunga perbankan di 5.25% (Aug: 5.25%; Cons: 5.5%). Keputusan ini diambil karena turunnya inflasi CPI Britania Raya di bulan Agustus menjadi 6.7% yoy diluar dugaan konsensus (Aug: 6.8% yoy; Cons: 7% yoy). Inflasi inti CPI UK juga turun melebihi ekspektasi pasar menjadi 6.2% yoy (Aug: 6.9% yoy; Cons: 6.8% yoy). Walaupun Bank of England menyatakan penghentian kenaikan bank rate hanya bersifat sementara, pasar berspekulasi penghentian ini akan menjadi permanen hingga dimulainya siklus pemangkasan suku bunga di 2H24. (Investing)

Domestic Economic News: Pertumbuhan kredit perbankan kembali naik menjadi 9.1% yoy (Aug: 8.5% yoy). Kenaikan ini didorong oleh kebijakan pelonggaran makroprudensial bagi sektor hilirisasi, perumahan, pariwisata, ekonomi hijau, dan inklusif bagi para pelaku UMKM. Kami memperkirakan Bank Indonesia bisa mencapai target pertumbuhan kredit perbankan tahun ini di kisaran 9-11%. (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0050, FR0068, FR0095, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 22 September 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 22 September 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 22 September 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 22 September 2023 (Eng)

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