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In 9-13 December 2024, avg. broiler price fell to IDR 19,831/kg (-1.7% WoW/-4.0% MoM/+6.9 YTD), while avg. DOC price jumped to IDR 7,000 (+3.7% WoW). Despite recent declines, broiler prices stayed above BEP, supported by relatively lower raw materials prices, including corn and SBM.
For raw materials, domestic corn prices increased +1.2% WoW, averaging IDR 4,931/kg (YTD: -29.7%), while avg. weekly SBM price dropped to USD 290/t (-1.4% WoW), with YTD average of USD 336/t (YTD: -25.9%). We attribute the slight uptick in corn prices to heavy rainfall across Indonesia, which disrupted harvesting activities.
Looking ahead, we anticipate poultry players to experience positive 4Q24 margins across all segments, driven by supply cuts and lower raw materials prices. In the sector, JPFA and MAIN appear to have the most attractive valuations, supported by performance drivers, such as voluntary culling, and favorable government policies, including free lunch program, the June 2024 reduced price relaxation, and the reduction in GPS import quotas starting in 2024.
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