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In the last 5 trading days, CPO prices dropped -2.0% WoW, averaging MYR 4,889/MT, which we attribute to weaker demand following end of the Indian festive season and winter starting in China (CPO is prone to freeze at colder temperatures). Furthermore, Malaysia, the world's second-largest CPO producer, reported declining CPO exports in the first 20 days of November to 981,687 MT (-5.32% MoM) on considerable drops in shipments to India (-42%) and EU (-30%).
However, in 25-28 November, CPO prices improved to MYR 5,045/MT (+4.5%), driven by worse-than-expected weather conditions in Malaysia. The country's meteorological department has issued warnings of heavy precipitation in several regions, which could negatively impact CPO production.
Potential for higher CPO output in December has paved the way for us to retain our FY24 average forecast at MYR 4,100/MT (YTD: MYR 4,060/MT) with NSSS (TP IDR 265/sh) and TAPG (TP IDR 800/sh) as our top picks, supported by their relatively young plantation assets (less than 10 years old), which should translate to higher crop and extraction yields.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is a leading Indonesian securities brokerage firm. Established in 1997, the firm has grown to become one of the most respected and trusted financial services companies in the country. With a wide range of services and products, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a trusted partner to many investors, both institutional and individual.
The company offers a variety of financial services, including equity, debt and derivative securities brokerage services, research and portfolio management, asset management and capital market services, as well as a range of other investment solutions. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is also a leader in providing financial education and training, and has established itself as a leading provider of investor relations services.
The company has a strong research capability and is committed to providing its clients with up-to-date and reliable market analysis and recommendations. It also has a team of experienced and knowledgeable professionals who are dedicated to providing quality service to its clients. As a result, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a preferred partner for many investors in Indonesia.
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