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Company Reports

06 December 2024

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Palm Oil Weekly (29 November – 5 December 2024): Avg. CPO MYR 5,197 (+6.5% WoW)

  • In the last five trading days, CPO prices surged +6.5% WoW, averaging MYR 5,196/ MT, the highest since June 2022, driven by weather conditions and tight supplies in Indonesia and Malaysia (collectively account for 80% of global CPO production). Thus, we retain our FY24 average estimate at MYR 4,100/MT (YTD: MYR 4,144/MT).
  • With the rainy season peaking in late December, Indonesia’s weather agency reported that rainfall levels could surge 20% above normal due to heavy monsoon.
  • Additionally, CPO stockpiles in Malaysia dropped to their lowest level since July as heavy rains disrupted FFB harvesting and transportation. According to Bloomberg survey,  inventories contracted -25% YoY/-4.3% MoM to 1.80 mn tons in November. The survey also indicated that crude palm oil production in Malaysia decreased 5.6% to 1.70 mn tons in November, marking three consecutive months of declines.
  • At this stage, we maintain our positive view on CPO as we expect price support from the upcoming CNY and Lebaran festivities. NSSS (TP IDR 350/sh) and TAPG (TP IDR 1,050/sh) are our top picks, supported by their relatively young plantation assets (less than 10 years old), which should translate to higher crop and extraction yields.

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CPO - 29 November - 5 December 2024

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CPO - 29 November - 5 December 2024

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