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Company Reports

06 December 2024

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Oil Weekly (29 Nov – 05 Dec 2024): Avg. USD 72.6/bbl (-1.2% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In the last five trading days, Brent prices dropped -1.2% WoW to USD 72.6/bbl, and WTI prices declined -1.4% WoW to USD 68.6/bbl. Recent negativity in oil markets largely stems from confusion over the scale of voluntary production cuts by eight OPEC+ countries. Markets now anticipate reduced supply cut of 500 mbopd, down from the initially expected 900 mbopd.
  • On natural gas, Russian President Vladimir Putin now allows European buyers to process gas payments through banks other than the sanctioned Gazprombank, briefly lowering gas prices by 2.3%. This shift comes amid US sanctions and concerns over expiring gas transit deals and strained European energy supplies during harsh winter.
  • We maintain our oil price forecast at USD 80/bbl (YTD avg: USD 80.3/bbl), factoring in continued price pressure and potential supply increases from the US and OPEC+ members, though there is some upside potential from extended production cuts into 2Q25. MEDC remains our top pick, with target price of IDR 2,200, reflecting 2025F valuation of 4.9x EV/EBITDA.

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