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06 December 2024

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Metal Mining: 9M24 Results Round-up

3Q24 Performance

  • In 3Q24, our metal mining coverage posted average EBITDA growth of +5.0% QoQ/+44.5 YoY driven by lower cash costs and gold price rally. Gold prices remained robust, bolstered by sustained central bank purchases, with the National Bank of Poland leading the way, adding 42 tons to its reserves.
  • We expect gold price to stay elevated in 2025, averaging USD 2,550/oz (+6.3% YoY), driven by demand from emerging markets’ central banks (to reach 100 tons in 2025) and Fed rate cuts. On nickel, prices may see some support in 4Q24 from Indonesia's delayed mining approvals. However, persistent oversupply, US-China trade tensions, and weak market stimulus should push prices down to USD 15,500/ton (YTD avg. USD 16,910/ton).
  • We retain our Neutral call on the sector, in preference for gold-related stocks as economic uncertainty could boost safe-haven demand. Top pick: BRMS (BUY, TP IDR 500) thanks to strong gold price leverage, solid financials, and 2027F expansions with new plants and underground mining. Meanwhile, NCKL (BUY, TP IDR 1,200) stands out among nickel players, due to its strategic RKEF growth and industry-low cash costs.

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Metal Mining 3Q24 results

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Metal Mining 3Q24 results

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