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25 November 2024

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Gold Weekly (18-22 November 2024): Avg. USD 2,656/oz (+2.8% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In the last five trading days, average gold prices spiked +2.8% WoW to USD 2,656/oz (from USD 2,584/oz), although DXY index inched higher to USD 106.7 (+0.4% WoW). Gold resumed its upward trend on escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, with US involvement exacerbating the situation.
  • Prices breached USD 2,700 for the first time in two weeks as safe-haven demand outweighed USD strength due to escalation in Russia-Ukraine tensions, highlighted by Ukraine's first long-range missile (supplied by the US) striked on Russian territory. This potential expansion into Russia-US conflict, coupled with reduced expectations of a Fed rate cut in December (53%, down from 82.5%), bolstered short-term safe-haven appeal.
  • We maintain our FY24 gold price estimate at USD 2,400/oz (YTD: USD 2,362/oz), despite the recent revisit to above the USD 2,700/oz level, supported by heated geopolitical tensions. Stock-wise, we retain BRMS as our top pick (TP IDR 500; USD 26.4/ton EV/Reserve FY25F), driven by its robust dore bullion production, strong earnings outlook, and substantial untapped assets potential.

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