Research & Stock Picks

Economic Reports

05 November 2024

By

Gross Domestic Product 3Q24: 5 November 2024

  • Indonesia's economy exhibited a tempered growth rate of 4.95% year-on-year (yoy) in the third quarter of 2024, in line with our projection (4.94%) albeit slightly below market expectations of 5.0%. This modest expansion, down from 5.05% in the previous quarter, underscores a slowdown, marking the weakest GDP growth since Q3 of 2023. Private consumption, a primary driver of Indonesia’s economic growth, remained nearly stagnant at 4.91% compared to 4.93% in Q2, reflecting subdued household spending despite stable macroeconomic conditions. Contracted PMI, persistent deflation, and low consumer confidence index have become evidence of this restrained phenomenon.
  • Trade dynamics were mixed, with exports growing 9.09%—an improvement over the previous quarter's 8.28%—yet falling short of the surge in imports, which accelerated to 11.47% from 7.79%. This widening gap indicates increased domestic demand for foreign goods and services amid the recent appreciation of the IDR. While this suggests strong consumption and investment activity, the IDR has depreciated again, as higher imports weighed on the trade balance. On a positive note, fixed investment grew 5.15%, up from 4.43%, pointing to investor confidence and heightened activity in infrastructure and capital-intensive sectors. Government spending also rose significantly, expanding 4.62% against previous increase of 1.42%, showcasing fiscal stimulus efforts aimed at supporting growth amid external and domestic challenges.
  • ⁠⁠Sector-wise, production showed mixed results. Notably, there was a deceleration in sectors crucial to the services industry, such as transportation, which grew at a slower rate of 8.64% compared to 9.56% in Q2, and communications, which slowed to 6.86% from 7.66%. Other key sectors, including wholesale and retail trade, insurance and financial services, as well as healthcare, also experienced slower growth. Wholesale and retail trade edged down to 4.82% from 4.86%, and financial services grew just 5.49%, a notable decline from previous quarter’s 7.90%. Healthcare services saw similar downtrend, expanding 7.64% compared to 8.56% previously. These shifts reflect moderating activities in consumption-driven sectors, which have been instrumental in sustaining Indonesia's economic momentum over recent years.
  • ⁠⁠Looking ahead, we expect the economy to grow 4.97% for the entire year, considering the anticipated low government spending in Q4 due to bureaucratic adjustments, which in turn, is leading to sustained low consumption. In 2025, we expect GDP growth to remain relatively flat from current levels on global economic slowdown coupled with the need for enhanced local coordinated efforts from new ministers and ministries to tackle both domestic and overseas challenges.

Share This:

Highlights

Download PDF

Download PDF

GDP - 3Q24

Download PDF

GDP - 3Q24

More Related

sawit

Company Reports

Nov 29, 2024

Palm Oil Weekly (22-29 November 2024): Avg. CPO MYR 4,889 (-2.0% WoW)

pertumbuhan solid oil n gas

Company Reports

Nov 29, 2024

Oil Weekly (22-28 November 2024): Avg. USD 73.4/bbl (+0.7% WoW)

batu bara melonjak

Company Reports

Nov 29, 2024

Coal Weekly (22- 28 November 2024): Avg. USD 139.6/ton (-2.2% WoW)

Morning Briefs

Nov 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 29 Nov, 2024

Economic Reports

Nov 28, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insights 29 November 2024

Company Reports

Nov 28, 2024

2025 Rice Ban: Potential Winners

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 28 Nov, 2024

Morning Briefs

Nov 28, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Company Reports

Nov 26, 2024

NCKL: 3Q24 Results – BUY, SSI TP: IDR 1,200

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 Nov, 2024

Company Reports

Nov 26, 2024

4-Wheelers Auto Sales, 10M24

Company Reports

Nov 26, 2024

Automotive – Neutral – Automotive 3Q24 Round-Up

Economic Reports

Nov 25, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insight 26 November 2024

harga tembaga naik

Company Reports

Nov 25, 2024

Copper Weekly (18-22 November 2024): Avg. USD 8,915/ton (-1.1% WoW)

harga emas melesat

Company Reports

Nov 25, 2024

Gold Weekly (18-22 November 2024): Avg. USD 2,656/oz (+2.8% WoW)

harga nikel tertekan

Company Reports

Nov 25, 2024

Nickel Weekly (18-22 November 2024): Avg. USD 15,608/ton (-0.1% WoW)

Economic Reports

Nov 25, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic Insight 25 November 2024

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 25 Nov, 2024

Morning Briefs

Nov 25, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Company Reports

Nov 22, 2024

SMRA: BUY, TP at 800 – 9M24 Results

tren harga CPO

Company Reports

Nov 22, 2024

Palm Oil Weekly (22 November 2024): CPO MYR 4,986 (-2.2% WoW)

sawit

Company Reports

Nov 22, 2024

Palm Oil Weekly (15 November 2024): CPO MYR 5,099 (+3.4% WoW)

Company Reports

Nov 22, 2024

Coal Weekly (22 November 2024): USD 142.8/ton (-0.3% WoW)

pertumbuhan solid oil n gas

Company Reports

Nov 22, 2024

Oil Weekly (22 November 2024): USD 72.9/bbl (+0.6% WoW)

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 Nov, 2024

Morning Briefs

Nov 22, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Menguat Hari Ini

peluang aces ditengah gejolak ekonomi

Company Reports

Nov 21, 2024

ACES: 10M24 SSSG

Economic Reports

Nov 21, 2024

Current Account Balance 3Q24: 21 November 2024

laba bni

Company Reports

Nov 21, 2024

BBNI: BUY, TP at 6,500 – 10M24 Results

Morning Briefs

Nov 21, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Melemah Hari Ini

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 21 Nov, 2024

Economic Reports

Nov 20, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insight 21 November 2024

Economic Reports

Nov 20, 2024

BI’s 7-Day Repo Rate: 20 November 2024

Morning Briefs

Nov 20, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Menguat Hari Ini

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 20 Nov, 2024

Economic Reports

Nov 20, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insights 20 November 2024

Morning Briefs

Nov 19, 2024

JCi is Expected to Move Up Today (19/11)

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 19 Nov, 2024

Economic Reports

Nov 19, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insight 19 November 2024

Company Reports

Nov 18, 2024

Media Sector – Underweight – Media 3Q24 Round-Up

pertumbuhan bbca

Company Reports

Nov 18, 2024

BBCA: BUY, TP at 12,500 – 10M24 Results

Company Reports

Nov 18, 2024

Tech Sector – Neutral – Tech 3Q24 Round-Up

Company Reports

Nov 18, 2024

Cement Sector – Neutral – Cement 3Q24 Round-Up

Company Reports

Nov 18, 2024

ITMG: 3Q24 Results – BUY, SSI TP: IDR 30,000

PGAS bukukan laba bersih

Company Reports

Nov 18, 2024

PGAS: 3Q24 Results – BUY, SSI TP: IDR 1,700

kenaikan harga emas

Company Reports

Nov 18, 2024

Gold Weekly (18 November 2024): USD 2,584/oz (-4.5% WoW)

harga tembaga stabil

Company Reports

Nov 18, 2024

Copper Weekly (18 November 2024): USD 9,010/ton (-4.3% WoW)

harga nikel tertekan

Company Reports

Nov 18, 2024

Nickel Weekly (18 November 2024): USD 15,616/ton (-2.0% WoW)

laba bersih alfamart

Company Reports

Nov 18, 2024

AMRT: 3Q24 Results – BUY, SSI TP: IDR 4,300

Economic Reports

Nov 18, 2024

Samuel 2nd Weekly Economic of November 2024

Morning Briefs

Nov 18, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 18, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 18 Nov, 2024

Economic Reports

Nov 15, 2024

Balance of Trade: 15 November 2024

penurunan harga batu bara

Company Reports

Nov 15, 2024

Coal Weekly (15 November 2024): USD 143.3/ton (-0.4% WoW)

pasar minyak tertekan

Company Reports

Nov 15, 2024

Oil Weekly (15 November 2024): USD 72.5/bbl (-3.2% WoW)

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 15, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 15 Nov, 2024

Morning Briefs

Nov 15, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Menguat Hari Ini

Economic Reports

Nov 15, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insight 15 November 2024

Company Reports

Nov 14, 2024

SSI Surveillance: Raw Materials (06 – 12 November 2024)

Company Reports

Nov 14, 2024

SSI Surveillance: Poultry Mid-Weekly (13 November 2024)

laba bersih era

Company Reports

Nov 14, 2024

ERAA: 3Q24 Results – BUY, SSI TP: IDR 560

Company Reports

Nov 14, 2024

ADARO ANDALAN INDONESIA (AADI) – IPO Report

Company Reports

Nov 14, 2024

Telecommunication Tower Sector – Overweight – Telecommunication Tower 3Q24 Round-Up

Company Reports

Nov 14, 2024

SMGR: SELL (From HOLD) – TP: IDR 3,200 (From 4,200) – 3Q24 Results

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 14, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 14 Nov, 2024

Morning Briefs

Nov 14, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Melemah Hari Ini

Economic Reports

Nov 13, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insight 13 November 2024

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 13 Nov, 2024

Morning Briefs

Nov 13, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Melemah Hari Ini

Economic Reports

Nov 12, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insight 13 November 2024

peluang aces ditengah gejolak ekonomi

Company Reports

Nov 12, 2024

ACES: 3Q24 Results – BUY, SSI TP: IDR 1,200

Company Reports

Nov 12, 2024

Telecommunications Sector – Overweight – Telecommunications 3Q24 Round-Up

Company Reports

Nov 12, 2024

Property Sector – Overweight – Property 3Q24 Round-Up

Company Reports

Nov 12, 2024

EXCL: 3Q24 Results – BUY, SSI TP: IDR 2,900

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 12 Nov, 2024

Economic Reports

Nov 11, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insight 11 November 2024

Company Reports

Nov 11, 2024

Nickel Weekly (11 November 2024): USD 15,931/ton (+1.3% WoW)

harga emas naik

Company Reports

Nov 11, 2024

Gold Weekly (11 November 2024): USD 2,706/oz (-1.8% WoW)

Company Reports

Nov 11, 2024

Copper Weekly (11 November 2024): USD 9,410/ton (+0.02% WoW)

Economic Reports

Nov 11, 2024

Indonesia Consumer Confidence Index: 11 November 2024

Company Reports

Nov 11, 2024

TOWR: 3Q24 Results – BUY, SSI TP: IDR 1,160

Company Reports

Nov 11, 2024

TBIG: 3Q24 Results – BUY, SSI TP: IDR 1,920

Economic Reports

Nov 11, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic Insights

Morning Briefs

Nov 11, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 11, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 11 Nov, 2024

sawit

Company Reports

Nov 8, 2024

Palm Oil Weekly (8 November 2024): CPO MYR 4,931 (+4.5% WoW)

Company Reports

Nov 8, 2024

Banking Sector – Overweight – Banking 3Q24 Round-Up

Economic Reports

Nov 8, 2024

Fed Rate Meeting: 8 November 2024

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 8, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 08 Nov, 2024

Morning Briefs

Nov 8, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Economic Reports

Nov 8, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insight 8 November 2024

Economic Reports

Nov 7, 2024

Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves: 7 November 2024

Company Reports

Nov 7, 2024

ASII: 3Q24 Results – BUY, SSI TP: IDR 5,900

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 07 Nov, 2024

Morning Briefs

Nov 7, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Melemah Hari Ini

Economic Reports

Nov 6, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Insight 7 November 2024

Company Reports

Nov 6, 2024

SCMA: 3Q24 Results – SELL, SSI TP: IDR 110

Technical Stock Analysis

Nov 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 06 Nov, 2024