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Company Reports

25 November 2024

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Copper Weekly (18-22 November 2024): Avg. USD 8,915/ton (-1.1% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In the last five days, average copper prices declined -1.1% WoW to USD 8,915/ton, pressured by signals from The Fed indicating a slower-than-expected pace of rate cuts in 2025. This outlook should weaken global economic growth, which is negative for copper prices.
  • Furthermore, SMM copper inventories in major regions only fell to 161,300 mt (-1.9% WoW) in November, marking the fifth consecutive week of slower destocking. Additionally, in October, China’s copper anode imports dropped to 60,400 mt (-19.1% MoM, -27.4% YoY), bringing 10M24 figure to 746,000 mt (-14.0% YoY), reflecting continued weakness in copper industry.
  • We maintain our average FY24 copper forecast at USD 9,150/ton (YTD: USD 9,172/ton) due to China-US trade war concerns and weak global economic outlook. We retain MDKA as our top pick, with TP IDR 3,000 (EV/EBITDA FY24: 10.9x), supported by its path to profitability in 2024 and the expected completion of the Weda Bay smelter in 4Q24.

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