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14 November 2024

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SSI Surveillance: Poultry Mid-Weekly (13 November 2024)

  • In 04 - 08 Oct 2024, avg. broiler price slightly ticked-up to ~IDR 20,939/kg (+1.8% WoW/+17.3% MoM/+14.7 YTD); Data on DOC reveals avg. price of IDR 7,000 (+0.0% WoW/+39.0% MoM/+0.0 YTD) thanks to recovery in broiler price, partly driven by seasonality, upcoming regional election and increasing chick-in demand for free-lunch program.
  • For raw materials, domestic corn prices remain flattish +0.3% WoW primarily due to milder La Nina forecast while SBM prices down -0.7% WoW, averaging USD 298/t, with YTD average of USD 341/t (YTD: -23.3%), on the back of softer demand and high crushing rates for soybean-derived products.
  • Looking ahead, we anticipate positive margins across all segment from poultry players in 4Q24. In the sector, JPFA and MAIN appear to have the most attractive valuations, particularly on performance support as we anticipate voluntary culling as well as favourable government policies, including the free lunch program, June-24 reduced price relaxation and 2024 lower GPS import quotas onwards.

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