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18 November 2024

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Nickel Weekly (18 November 2024): USD 15,616/ton (-2.0% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In 11–15 November 2024, nickel prices dropped -2.0% WoW, averaging USD 15,616/ton, primarily due to negative sentiment stemming from higher DXY of USD 106.3 (+1.8% WoW) and potential trade war with China, the world’s largest NPI and stainless steel producer, limiting price recovery.
  • In October 2024, China’s domestic refined nickel production fell -2.6% MoM with monthly operating rate dropping to 71.2% (Sept: 71.8%), signaling lower industrial activity. The decrease was mainly due to the National Day holiday, which reduced operating rates in smaller factories. Weak market fundamentals further weighed on nickel prices, leading to downward fluctuations and constraining production output.
  • Due to lack of market stimulus, persistent oversupply issues, and possible US-China trade war, we maintain FY24 nickel price forecast at USD 16,900/ton (YTD: USD 16,981/ton). Stock-wise, we retain NCKL as our top pick, driven by anticipated earnings growth from capacity expansion and industry-lowest cash cost, with TP of IDR 1,200 (FY24 P/E: 8.4x).

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