Research & Stock Picks

Economic Reports

11 November 2024

By

Samuel Weekly Economic Insights

Highlights

  • Dampak Pemilu AS terhadap Indonesia: Kemenangan Donald Trump dalam pemilu AS diperkirakan akan memengaruhi ekonomi Indonesia melalui kebijakan perdagangan, efek mata uang, dan arus modal. Dalam jangka pendek, menguatnya dolar AS dapat menyebabkan arus keluar modal dan meningkatkan biaya utang berdenominasi dolar. Namun dalam jangka panjang, potensi depresiasi dolar AS dapat meredakan tekanan pada rupiah dan membuka peluang bagi terwujudnya perjanjian perdagangan bilateral yang menguntungkan.

 

  • Cadangan Devisa: Cadangan devisa Indonesia mencapai USD 151.2 miliar pada bulan Oktober, angka tertinggi sepanjang masa, yang menjadi amunisi Indonesia untuk menghadapi guncangan ekonomi eksternal, serta membantu menstabilkan rupiah di tengah ketidakpastian global.

 

  • Stimulus Ekonomi untuk Pertumbuhan Domestik: Pemerintahan Presiden Prabowo berfokus pada penguatan belanja kelas menengah dan optimalisasi badan usaha milik negara (BUMN) melalui pembentukan entitas super-holding Danantara. Inisiatif ini merupakan bagian dari strategi untuk mendorong pertumbuhan, menciptakan lapangan kerja, dan meningkatkan produktivitas di sektor-sektor utama seperti manufaktur dan teknologi.

 

  • Investasi USD 1,2 Miliar dalam Infrastruktur Digital: Indonesia memposisikan dirinya sebagai pemimpin dalam transformasi digital di ASEAN dengan investasi teknologi sebesar USD 1.2 miliar. Pendanaan ini, yang dipimpin oleh SWF indonesia bekerjasama Granite Asia Singapura, akan meningkatkan infrastruktur digital dan mendorong inovasi dalam ekonomi digital yang sedang berkembang.

 

  • Pemangkasan Suku Bunga The Fed: The Fed baru-baru ini memangkas suku bunga utamanya sebesar 25 basis poin menjadi 4.5%-4.75%, yang menandakan pendekatan yang hati-hati di tengah ketidakpastian ekonomi. Penyesuaian ini memberikan kelegaan bagi Indonesia, dan Bank Indonesia tengah mempertimbangkan pemangkasan suku bunga serupa untuk mendukung stabilitas ekonomi.

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