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11 November 2024

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Copper Weekly (11 November 2024): USD 9,410/ton (+0.02% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 04 – 08 November 2024, copper prices remained flattish (+0.02% WoW at USD 9,410/ton. The rapid pace of energy transition in China, as reflected by the drop in inventories to 192,500 mt (-8.2% WoW), fueled copper market optimism. Furthermore, the recently announced CNY 10tn stimulus is expected to improve macroeconomic conditions and stabilize China's property sector, adding further momentum to the copper market.
  • Copper gained another boost from the Fed's 25 bps rate cut, which is anticipated to stimulate growth in property and semiconductor sectors, increasing copper demand. However, concerns regarding potential trade war between China and the US following Donald Trump’s election victory weighed on prices in the near term.
  • We maintain our average FY24 copper forecast at USD 9,200/ton (YTD: USD 9,182/ton), primarily due to China’s industrial growth potential and supply concerns. We retain MDKA as our top pick, with TP IDR 3,000 (EV/EBITDA FY24: 10.9x), supported by its path to profitability in 2024 and the expected completion of Weda Bay smelter in 4Q24.

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