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15 November 2024

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Coal Weekly (15 November 2024): USD 143.3/ton (-0.4% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In 8 – 14 November 2024, average coal prices slipped to USD 143.3/ton (-0.4% WoW) on the back of limited buying interest from China’s downstream industries, which dampened short-term prospects. However, recent economic stimulus measures have sparked optimism for gradual rebound in industrial activity, potentially boosting coal demand and alleviating market sluggishness.
  • In October, India’s coal imports fell to 13.56 Mt (-30.2% MoM, -31.8% YoY) driven by rapid domestic production from captive/commercial coal mines, which increased to 100.08 Mt from April 1 to November 8 (up from 75.1 Mt; +33.4% YoY), meeting the national demand of c. 120 Mt for the upcoming winter season. Slower shipments to India, combined with strong production, may contribute to increased global supplies that could weigh on prices.
  • In light of economic uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical tensions, we maintain our FY24 coal price forecast at USD 136/ton (YTD: USD 136.8/ton), with ADRO (TP IDR 4,200; FY24 P/E of 5.7x) as our top pick, primarily due to its AAI spin-off plan and significant dividends.

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