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25 November 2024

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Nickel Weekly (18-22 November 2024): Avg. USD 15,608/ton (-0.1% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In the last five trading days, avg. nickel prices remained unexciting at USD 15,608 (-0.1% WoW), despite potentially lower nickel production caused by the -19.5% drop in Indonesia’s RKAB approvals for 2024-2026 (to 198,539 Mt nickel ores). Added uncertainty to the market was also reduced license fees for low-grade nickel ore (<1.5% Ni), primarily used in battery production expected to drive nickel demand. This could constrain supplies for stainless steel manufacturing.
  • In October, China’s nickel imports showed significant decline totaling 690,900 mt of FeNi (-6.3% MoM, -23.7% YoY) with 85,000 mt of metal content (-5.8% MoM, -26.6% YoY). Meanwhile, Indonesia’s NPI production rose significantly (+7.5% MoM, +13.5% YoY) due to increased nickel ore supplies and the shift from high-grade nickel matte to NPI, boosting overall output. The supply-demand imbalance may exert downward pressure on prices.
  • Lack of market stimulus, persistent oversupply issues, and possible US-China trade war prompt us to maintain FY24 nickel price forecast at USD 16,900/ton (YTD: USD 16,951/ton). With minimal downside on nickel, we retain NCKL as our top sector pick, driven by anticipated earnings growth from capacity expansion and industry-lowest cash cost, with TP of IDR 1,200 (FY24 P/E: 8.6x).

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