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In 1–7 November 2024, CPO prices surged +4.5% WoW, averaging MYR 4,931/MT and hitting a two-year high for the second straight week, primarily driven by Indonesia’s tight supply outlook.
In 2026, Indonesia plans to implement B50 (CPO-50% diesel fuel) as part of its strategy to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and save over USD 7.9bn in fuel imports. Consequently, domestic consumption of CPO for biofuel is expected to increase, especially with the persistent shortage, now standing at 3.9mn kl. Currently, Indonesia is using B35 and plans to transition to B40 starting on 1 January 2025.
On the production side, we expect December’s CPO output to increase due to rainy season, boosting productivity and exerting downward pressure on CPO prices.
The potential for higher output in December prompts us to retain our FY24 average forecast at MYR 4,100/MT (YTD: MYR 4,057/MT), with NSSS (TP IDR 265/sh) and TAPG (TP IDR 800/sh) as our top picks, supported by their relatively young plantation assets (less than 10 years old), which should translate to higher crop and extraction yields.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is a leading Indonesian securities brokerage firm. Established in 1997, the firm has grown to become one of the most respected and trusted financial services companies in the country. With a wide range of services and products, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a trusted partner to many investors, both institutional and individual.
The company offers a variety of financial services, including equity, debt and derivative securities brokerage services, research and portfolio management, asset management and capital market services, as well as a range of other investment solutions. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is also a leader in providing financial education and training, and has established itself as a leading provider of investor relations services.
The company has a strong research capability and is committed to providing its clients with up-to-date and reliable market analysis and recommendations. It also has a team of experienced and knowledgeable professionals who are dedicated to providing quality service to its clients. As a result, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a preferred partner for many investors in Indonesia.
In addition to its financial services, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia also offers a range of other services, such as corporate finance and advisory services, mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital.
