Research & Stock Picks

Company Reports

12 November 2024

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ACES: 3Q24 Results – BUY, SSI TP: IDR 1,200

Strength

Solid topline growth of +12.6% YoY in 3Q24 on the back of robust SSSG, which reached 9.8% in 9M24 (9M23: 7.4%) as Ex-Java maintained its impressive momentum with double-digit SSSG; ACES will incorporate its effective tax benefit of ~19% in its FY24 results (9M24 effective tax rate: -20.3%)

 

Weakness

Opex saw an uptick +11.8% YoY in 9M24, largely due to higher freight and salary expenses as the company pursued aggressive expansion in Ex-Java markets; Jakarta posted soft SSSG in Sept-24 at 5.0% (Sep-23: 7.7%)

 

Opportunity

We expect ex-Java markets to maintain their upbeat momentum; potentially improving purchasing power of mid-to-high income segment should support sales going forward, allowing for a reversal from the recent market underperformance

 

Threat

Worse-than-expected consumer spending (due to weak purchasing power, economic slowdown, and shrinking middle class) as well as potential import tax on Chinese products may dampen ACES’s profitability ahead; the most expensive P/S valuation in our sector coverage; recent market underperformance to persist on earnings downgrades due to weak 9M results

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ACES 3Q24

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ACES 3Q24

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