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22 November 2024

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Oil Weekly (22 November 2024): USD 72.9/bbl (+0.6% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 15–21 November 2024, Brent prices slightly rose +0.6% WoW (to USD 72.9/bbl), while WTI prices inched up +0.3% WoW (to USD 68.9/bbl), driven by Ukraine-Russia war escalation as Ukraine deployed missiles targeting Russian cities. Declining Russian crude exports to 4-month low of 2.83 mmbpd (-740 mbpd WoW) and unexpected drop in EIA distillate stockpiles (-114 mbbl vs. +400 mbbl expected) further supported crude prices.
  • However, prices retreated from 1-week high due to stronger USD and surprising increase in EIA crude inventories (+545,000 bbl vs. -85,000 bbl expected). US gasoline inventories jumped +2.05 million bbl as gasoline demand fell to a 9-month low (8.419 mmbpd; -4.6% WoW). Additionally, weak crude demand in China during October (-5.4% YoY; 14.07 mmbpd) and eased Middle East tensions added to the downward pressure.
  • We maintain our oil price forecast at USD 80/bbl (YTD avg: USD 80.4/bbl), factoring in sustained price pressure and potential supply increases from OPEC+ members, with some upside from extended production cuts into 4Q24 and 2025. MEDC remains our top pick, with a target price of IDR 2,200, reflecting an FY24F valuation of 4.9x EV/EBITDA.

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