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26 August 2024

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Copper Weekly (26 August 2024): USD 9,108/ton (+2.3% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 19–23 August 2024, copper prices increased +2.3% WoW, reaching 11-month high, driven by the Federal Reserve’s hints of potential rate cuts and the slowdown in bond sell-off. The weaker US dollar, resulting from the Fed’s dovish stance, made copper more affordable for foreign investors, boosting demand.
  • Fastmarkets' latest report projects refined copper demand to grow 2.6% CAGR, reaching 35.1 million tons by 2034, up from 26.5 million tons in 2023. The energy transition sector, including solar, wind, and EVs, will drive much of this growth, with copper demand in these industries expected to rise 11.2% CAGR. The EV sector alone is anticipated to grow 13.7% CAGR, accounting for over half of energy transition-related demand by 2034.
  • We maintain our average FY24 copper price forecast at USD 9,500 per ton (YTD: USD 9,114/ton). On the stock front, we retain MDKA as our top pick, with TP of IDR 3,300 (EV/EBITDA FY24: 12.2x), reflecting 40% upside potential, as the company turns into profit in 2024, supported by its smelter in Weda Bay, Maluku.

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