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22 November 2024

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Coal Weekly (22 November 2024): USD 142.8/ton (-0.3% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 15 – 21 November 2024, average coal prices slipped to USD 142.8/ton (-0.3% WoW). Coal prices faced pressure from COP29, as 25 countries and the EU pledged to halt coal power plant construction without carbon capture.
  • Furthermore, China's higher 10M24 coal production of 3.89 billion tons (+1.2% YoY) and October output of 411.8 Mt (+4.6% YoY) added to the decline. On 20 November, New Delhi, ranked as the world’s most polluted city by IQAir, further intensified coal’s downward pressure.
  • On the other hand, the U.S. approval for Ukraine to deploy long-range weapons, the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), to target Russian cities has provided support to coal prices, preventing them from falling further.
  • qIn light of economic uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical tensions, we maintain our FY24 coal price forecast at USD 136/ton (YTD: USD 137.0/ton), with ADRO (TP IDR 4,200; FY24 P/E of 5.7x) as our top pick, primarily due to its AAI spin-off plan and significant dividends.

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